
Home Registration Program Program Friday Details Friday Abstracts Saturday Details Saturday Abstracts Speakers Proceedings Location Location Venue Accommodations Posters Call for Posters Presentation Guidelines Poster Abstracts Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5 Category 6 Category 7 Sponsors Sponsors Sponsorship Opportunities Sponsorship Levels Awards About About Organizers Past Conferences Related Events Related Events Social Marketing Links Contact Sitemap	Conference Posters Abstracts Category 1 — Patterns of Global Change Impacts of Climate Change on the Grasslands of the Canadian Prairies Presenter: Jeff Thorpe Author: Jeff Thorpe The grasslands of Canada’s Prairie Ecozone show trends in composition and productivity that are driven by climate. These trends can be represented by mathematical models. Models have been extended to future climatic scenarios, by using the grasslands of the U.S. Great Plains as analogues for the warmer future. The zonation of grassland types is predicted to shift northward, with future climates becoming increasingly suitable for U.S. types such as Shortgrass Prairie. These changes imply gradual northward movement of species not currently found in Canada, and the proportion of warm-season (C4) species in our grasslands will probably increase. However, models suggest that climatic warming will cause only modest changes in grassland productivity, which is mainly limited by levels of precipitation. Adapting Conservation Strategies For Future Climate Change In The Tallgrass Aspen Parkland Presenter: Cary Hamel Authors: Phil Gerla; Cary Hamel; Russ Reisz; Meredith Cornett; Marissa Ahlering; Jon Eerkes The Tallgrass Aspen Parkland (TAP) of Manitoba and Minnesota lies within a North American ecotone between the boreal region, tallgrass prairie, and northern hardwood forest. Roughly 20% of this landscape is protected through ownership or management by government agencies or conservation organizations. Historically, a dynamic mosaic of prairie, woodland, and wetland dominated the landscape. Fire previously shaped upland ecology, driven by fluctuations in Holocene climate. Current threats to biodiversity include fire suppression and aspen encroachment, ditching/channelization, invasive/alien species, and the loss of moose through disease. Accelerated global climate change will likely exacerbate the threats. A model ensemble suggests that by 2050 annual temperature will rise by >3 degrees C, with the greatest increase occurring in winter. Precipitation is predicted to increase 20% for December - February. We identified likely aggravated threats and possible adaptation strategies for the TAP: The timing of increased precipitation will worsen spring floods and disrupt riparian species composition, facilitating spread of invasive species. Wetlands will experience more open water, radically changing current habitat. These stresses underscore the urgent need for protection of key areas representing the full range of landscape variability. Restoration of presently impaired hydrology is also important to addressing this threat. A longer growing season and an atmosphere enriched in carbon dioxide will enhance aspen expansion at the expense of native grass. Concurrently, present fire management techniques designed to control encroachment will become increasingly difficult to implement and less effective. To mitigate the impact, at least 20% of prescribed burns by 2020 should occur outside the current spring season timeframe. Increasing temperature (and perhaps precipitation) may compromise the health of large mammals. For example, the moose population in northwestern Minnesota has declined significantly. It may not be possible to maintain moose as a conservation target in this landscape under changing conditions.

Conference Posters Abstracts

Category 1 — Patterns of Global Change

Impacts of Climate Change on the Grasslands of the Canadian Prairies

Presenter: Jeff Thorpe
Author: Jeff Thorpe

The grasslands of Canada’s Prairie Ecozone show trends in composition and productivity that are driven by climate. These trends can be represented by mathematical models. Models have been extended to future climatic scenarios, by using the grasslands of the U.S. Great Plains as analogues for the warmer future. The zonation of grassland types is predicted to shift northward, with future climates becoming increasingly suitable for U.S. types such as Shortgrass Prairie. These changes imply gradual northward movement of species not currently found in Canada, and the proportion of warm-season (C4) species in our grasslands will probably increase. However, models suggest that climatic warming will cause only modest changes in grassland productivity, which is mainly limited by levels of precipitation.

Adapting Conservation Strategies For Future Climate Change In The Tallgrass Aspen Parkland

Presenter: Cary Hamel
Authors: Phil Gerla; Cary Hamel; Russ Reisz; Meredith Cornett; Marissa Ahlering; Jon Eerkes

The Tallgrass Aspen Parkland (TAP) of Manitoba and Minnesota lies within a North American ecotone between the boreal region, tallgrass prairie, and northern hardwood forest. Roughly 20% of this landscape is protected through ownership or management by government agencies or conservation organizations. Historically, a dynamic mosaic of prairie, woodland, and wetland dominated the landscape. Fire previously shaped upland ecology, driven by fluctuations in Holocene climate. Current threats to biodiversity include fire suppression and aspen encroachment, ditching/channelization, invasive/alien species, and the loss of moose through disease. Accelerated global climate change will likely exacerbate the threats. A model ensemble suggests that by 2050 annual temperature will rise by >3 degrees C, with the greatest increase occurring in winter. Precipitation is predicted to increase 20% for December - February. We identified likely aggravated threats and possible adaptation strategies for the TAP:

The timing of increased precipitation will worsen spring floods and disrupt riparian species composition, facilitating spread of invasive species. Wetlands will experience more open water, radically changing current habitat. These stresses underscore the urgent need for protection of key areas representing the full range of landscape variability. Restoration of presently impaired hydrology is also important to addressing this threat.
A longer growing season and an atmosphere enriched in carbon dioxide will enhance aspen expansion at the expense of native grass. Concurrently, present fire management techniques designed to control encroachment will become increasingly difficult to implement and less effective. To mitigate the impact, at least 20% of prescribed burns by 2020 should occur outside the current spring season timeframe.
Increasing temperature (and perhaps precipitation) may compromise the health of large mammals. For example, the moose population in northwestern Minnesota has declined significantly. It may not be possible to maintain moose as a conservation target in this landscape under changing conditions.